Rodney Stuckey for Rookie Guard of the Year!
Here is my Rodney Stuckey Analysis.
The first document is the Pistons after 80 games. As you can see, the team is led by Chauncey Billups. He is easily their most productive player. Average WP48 is 0.100, and so you can see that Billups gets quite a bit of help. Prince, McDyess, Wallace, Hamilton, Maxiell, and Johnson are all above average (Amir is second to Billups in WP48).
The Detroit Pistons in 2007-08
After 80 Games (actual wins = 57)
WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes
|
Detroit Pistons after 80 games |
Games Played |
Games Started |
Minutes |
WP48 |
Wins Produced |
| Chauncey Billups |
76 |
76 |
2,485 |
0.298 |
15.4 |
| Tayshaun Prince |
80 |
80 |
2,658 |
0.150 |
8.3 |
| Antonio McDyess |
76 |
76 |
2,245 |
0.172 |
8.1 |
| Rasheed Wallace |
75 |
74 |
2,310 |
0.142 |
6.8 |
| Richard Hamilton |
70 |
70 |
2,385 |
0.130 |
6.5 |
| Jason Maxiell |
80 |
7 |
1,713 |
0.144 |
5.1 |
| Amir Johnson |
60 |
0 |
731 |
0.238 |
3.6 |
| Rodney Stuckey |
55 |
2 |
1,028 |
0.072 |
1.5 |
| Jarvis Hayes |
80 |
1 |
1,235 |
0.056 |
1.4 |
| Arron Afflalo |
73 |
9 |
931 |
0.063 |
1.2 |
| Nazr Mohammed |
21 |
0 |
228 |
0.123 |
0.6 |
| Ronald Murray |
19 |
2 |
347 |
0.034 |
0.2 |
| Theo Ratliff |
15 |
3 |
214 |
0.051 |
0.2 |
| Juan Dixon |
16 |
0 |
221 |
0.024 |
0.1 |
| Cheik Samb |
4 |
0 |
31 |
0.057 |
0.0 |
| Primoz Brezec |
17 |
0 |
98 |
-0.004 |
0.0 |
| Ronald Dupree |
1 |
0 |
3 |
-0.152 |
0.0 |
| Walter Herrmann |
27 |
0 |
180 |
-0.010 |
0.0 |
| Lindsey Hunter |
23 |
0 |
206 |
-0.076 |
-0.3 |
|
|
|
|
Summation of WP |
58.9 |
The rookies, Stuckey and Afflalo, are each below average. But not by much.
Relative to other guards, each rookie looks pretty good. I compared Stuckey to both point guards and shooting guards. Among point guards, only Conley has a higher Win Score per 48 minute (this is not the same as WP48). Win Score does not take into account team defense, and when that is considered (as it is in calculating WP48), Stuckey is the more productive player (in other words, Stuckey has the highest WP48 among point guards). I would add that Stuckey is also more productive than Billups was his rookie season.
Evaluating the First Round Point Guards
Below Average Numbers in Red
Points-per-shot = [PTS-FTM]/FGA
Adjusted Field Goal Percentage = PPS/2
Net Possessions = Rebounds + Steals - Turnovers
Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF
season almost complete
|
Statistic |
Average Point Guard |
Rodney Stuckey |
Mike Conley Jr. |
Acie Law IV |
Javaris Crittenton |
Aaron Brooks |
Chauncey Billups, Rookie |
| Points per shot |
0.95 |
0.83 |
0.92 |
0.81 |
0.88 |
0.99 |
0.89 |
| Adjusted Field Goal Percentage |
47.4% |
41.3% |
46.1% |
40.3% |
44.2% |
49.5% |
44.5% |
| Free Throw Percentage |
0.79 |
0.80 |
0.74 |
0.79 |
0.69 |
0.84 |
0.85 |
| Field Goal Attempts |
15.8 |
16.9 |
15.2 |
13.2 |
16.5 |
17.6 |
16.2 |
| Free Throw Attempts |
4.3 |
6.8 |
4.2 |
2.7 |
7.4 |
3.7 |
5.8 |
| Points Scored |
18.4 |
19.4 |
17.2 |
12.7 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
19.3 |
| Rebounds |
4.7 |
5.6 |
4.7 |
3.1 |
7.8 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
| Steals |
2.0 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
| Turnovers |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
| Net Possessions |
3.3 |
4.4 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
5.2 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
| Blocked Shots |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
| Assists |
8.6 |
7.2 |
7.5 |
6.1 |
3.6 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
| Personal Fouls |
3.6 |
5.0 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
5.2 |
3.7 |
| Win Score |
6.3 |
4.76 |
5.32 |
0.77 |
4.95 |
4.08 |
4.48 |
|
|
Games |
55 |
51 |
54 |
50 |
49 |
80 |
|
|
Minutes |
1,028 |
1,323 |
846 |
679 |
577 |
2,216 |
| Minutes per game |
18.7 |
25.9 |
15.7 |
13.6 |
11.8 |
27.7 |
Turning to shooting guards… Durant and Afflalo have higher Win Scores. But the difference is small. If you wanted to argue that Stuckey is the most productive guard, I think you would have a case. For comparison sake I also consider Rip Hamilton’s rookie numbers. Again, Stuckey is much better.
Looking at the individual stats, Stuckey is able to rebound and get steals. He also gets some assists and is not too bad with respect to turnovers. Where he has problems is in the area of shooting efficiency. When he gets his shots to fall more consistently, Stuckey will be an above average guard.
Evaluating the First Round Shooting Guards
Below Average Numbers in Red
Points-per-shot = [PTS-FTM]/FGA
Adjusted Field Goal Percentage = PPS/2
Net Possessions = Rebounds + Steals - Turnovers
Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF
season almost complete
|
Statistic |
Average Shooting Guard |
Rodney Stuckey |
Kevin Durant |
Nick Young |
Daequan Cook |
Arron Afflalo |
Richard Hamilton, Rookie |
| Points per shot |
0.963 |
0.83 |
0.892 |
0.958 |
0.915 |
0.851 |
0.886 |
| Adjusted Field Goal Percentage |
48.1% |
41.3% |
44.6% |
47.9% |
45.8% |
42.5% |
44.3% |
| Free Throw Percentage |
0.80 |
0.80 |
0.87 |
0.82 |
0.84 |
0.77 |
0.77 |
| Field Goal Attempts |
17.5 |
16.9 |
23.6 |
19.8 |
16.9 |
11.8 |
21.2 |
| Free Throw Attempts |
4.9 |
6.8 |
7.8 |
5.1 |
2.0 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
| Points Scored |
20.8 |
19.4 |
27.9 |
23.2 |
17.1 |
13.4 |
22.3 |
| Rebounds |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
5.7 |
6.6 |
4.5 |
| Steals |
1.8 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
| Turnovers |
2.8 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
| Net Possessions |
4.6 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
6.4 |
2.6 |
| Blocked Shots |
0.5 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
| Assists |
4.6 |
7.2 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
| Personal Fouls |
3.7 |
5.0 |
2.1 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
| Win Score |
6.1 |
4.76 |
4.80 |
1.91 |
2.15 |
5.26 |
0.93 |
|
|
Games |
55 |
79 |
73 |
56 |
73 |
71 |
|
|
Minutes |
1,028 |
2,725 |
1,104 |
1,338 |
931 |
1373 |
| Minutes per game |
18.7 |
34.5 |
15.1 |
23.9 |
12.8 |
19.3 |
If memory serves, Stuckey is who the Pistons got for Milicic. So in the end, the Pistons did come out ahead on that transaction. At least, Stuckey is likely to be a better pro than Milicic.
Of course, had the Pistons taken Dwyane Wade (or Chris Bosh, Chris Kaman, etc…) they would also be better off.
Best,
David J. Berri
Associate Professor of Economics
California State University-Bakersfield
www.csub.edu/~dberri
www.wagesofwins.com