Via The News-Herald:

Rumor Mill

Pistons GM Joe Dumars is facing some tough negotiations in the next few years. Forward Jason Maxiell’s decision to turn down Detroit’s three-year, $15 million extension — it would have included a team option for a fourth year — was just the first of many to come. Richard Hamilton will probably opt out of his contract after this season, and the Pistons need to decide whether to give him an extension. Amir Johnson will be unrestricted in the summer of 2010, and many expect a bidding war. Tayshaun Prince will also be a free agent that summer. Dumars also needs to decide whether to extend the contracts of Arron Afflalo and Rodney Stuckey.

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Via The News-Herald:

The Pistons continue to rave about starting power forward Amir Johnson.

“I thought Amir could be very good in this league the last two years,” Pistons guard Richard Hamilton said. “He just never got the opportunity. When he would get into the game, he would play like 10 minutes and he was getting (a lot of) blocks. He’s one of the fastest bigs in the league. With the minutes he played the last two years, you could see something special was there.”

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If we know Joe D, he is already thinking of a master plan.  That has to be intimidating to even fathom.  Amir, Tayshaun, Stuckey and Afflalo all soon to be free agents.  Guys like Stuckey and especially Afflalo (from what we saw in pre-season) are getting so good that we probably will not be able to afford them all.  By 2010 we will have some many players who are worthy of starting from our current roster it will be crazy.

Decisions…

Decisions…

How about this?

Maybe we can just have a Varsity A and a Varsity B squad.  Two NBA franchises in Detroit.

What should the new franchise be named?

Peace,

John W. Davis

www.pistonscast.com

AM I READY?

DET NEWS ARTICLE:

Billups said the team is emotionally and physically ready to start the season, but he cautioned fans not to expect a finished product right out of the gate.

“We aren’t going to be a polished, well-oiled machine in the first 15 to 20 games,” Billups said, “because we’ve got guys playing different roles and we have a new system.

“But we are going to be fine. We have a high basketball IQ here and we’re going to figure it out, and we’re going to be good. It’s just going to take a little time.”

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What’s Going on World?

John W. Davis here.  I’m feeling good today. Why?  The Message Board Messiah aka Adam Lader and John W. Davis will be in the building for opening night. I know, jealous right?

Anyway, heed Chauncey’s words and don’t micro-judge every mistake for the first 20 games of the season.  Amir is new.  Tayshaun is still working on his consistency.  Even Chauncey has to work on getting his swagger back.  We all know Rasheed has to work on focusing on his offensive interior presence.  Even Rip has to consistently bring it on defense or he might find Arron Afflalo playing a bit more than he would like.

The beginning of this season is a learning experience for all the players and especially the coach.  Coach Curry has preached accountability but it’s going to take more than that.  It will take actually head coaching.  Although he was the captain of the Pistons when he retired, and an assistant coach last year, he is still learning and experience a lot of coaching trials and tribulations for the first time.

So after the first twenty games if the Pistons are 12-8, don’t worry because that’s a .600 % winning percentage and over the long haul that makes us a contender in the East.

Peace,

John W. Davis

www.pistonscast.com

"The 5th Starter"

What’s Going On World?

John W. Davis here.  My 5th Most Important Piston is Amir Johnson.  Amir made the top five!  Yes he did and deserves to because he is “only” 21 and is the “future” of the Detroit Pistons frontcourt. 

Since his promotion to the first shift, Johnson now gets the dubious designation of “The 5th Starter.”  It’s a title that he should not like and the Pistons need to drop ASAP if this team is going to get back to winning championships.

Follow me here: 

Since 2004, the Pistons have been comprised of a Big 4 + 1.  It’s always Chauncey, then Rasheed, then Rip and then Tayshaun.  The first plus 1 was Ben Wallace, an eventual scapegoat for ineffective post season play in 2004-2005 and 2005-2006.  They blamed him for all of the Pistons offensive shortcomings. 

In 2006-2007 the Pistons signed Chris Webber. He was Detroit’s own plus 1.  The hometown guy, who could take us back to championship and earn his first championship. Alas, he was injured, he was tired, he was simply past his prime.  That’s no fault of his but something was missing from Chris, his NBA Hall of Fame game.

In 2007-2008, the plus 1 was Antonio McDyess, a great veteran with a much better offensive game than Ben Wallace and “Number 84″, but his shortcoming was game-changing defense.  He was effective, actually better than average defender but McDyess just didn’t have the explosiveness of his youth to truly replace Ben Wallace on the defensive end of the court.

But now it’s 2008-2009, the season of Amir Johnson.  It’s his turn to try his hand at the 5th starter position.  A position that seems perrenially doomed. (Maybe the Big 4 should play 4 on 5.)  It’s his turn to be expected to have a defensive impact like Ben Wallace.  It’s his turn to be expected to have an offensive impact like McDyess did. 

Are these expectations realistic?  I don’t think so, nor does Coach Curry, but that won’t stop fans from having them.

They will say, but he is 6′11, and 230 now instead of the 6′9, 210 from his early seasons.  They will say, but I saw a box score where he had 6 blocks in 12 minutes last season.  They will say, I saw a youtube of him dunk from the free throw line in high school.  They will say that if he gets 25 minutes that he should average 12 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks because with half the minutes, he averaged half the stats.

I say that “The 5th Starter” is flawed from the tip-off because how can your contributions show up on the stat sheet when you have Chauncey, Rip, Tayshaun, Rasheed, Rodney Stuckey; all dominant in their own way… I hope you get the point…

This “5th Starter” can not show up like that.  So you had 6 rebounds instead of 10. So what?  So you only had 1 block instead of 3?  So what? 

I will evaluate Amir by looking at the team and I will say to myself, “John W. Davis are we better off when Amir starts and or plays significant minutes”?

My answer to that question will come from a simple equation, the Detroit Pistons 2008-09 record, Wins and Losses.

Peace,

John W. Davis

www.pistonscast.com

Starting Amir

The 2008 playoffs ended for the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Again.  For the past three seasons the Pistons have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals, only to lose in six games.

After seeing the Pistons lose to the Celtics last May, Joe Dumars appeared to promise major changes.  He was quoted as saying “everybody’s in play. There are no sacred cows here.” As noted at True Blue Pistons: “the message is clear: If Dumars has his way, the Pistons are going to look significantly different by the time they convene for training camp in October.”

Joe’s Big Changes

When the summer ended, though, significant differences were hard to find.  Here are the changes made to the roster:

• Kwame Brown - the first player taken in the 2001 draft - was added via free agency. Brown has never lived up to his lofty draft status and is expected to be a back-up center with the Pistons
• Walter Sharpe — as second round draft choice of the team formally known as the Seattle Supersonics - was acquired on draft night. Sharpe might become the primary back-up at the small forward position. Then again he might not.
• Trent Plaisted - another second round draft choice by the team formally known as the Seattle Supersonics - was also acquired on draft night. Plaisted currently plays for Angelico Biella (in the Italian Serie A).
• Deron Washington was selected by the Pistons with the 59^th choice in the draft. It’s not clear where he is playing. He is listed on Detroit’s current roster but has yet to log any playing time in the pre-season.
• The Pistons also gave two-year contracts to Alex Acker (the team’s second round draft choice from 2005) and Will Bynum (an undrafted player). Each player appeared briefly in 2005-06. Acker played 35 minutes with the Pistons while Bynum played 162 minutes. Each player might occasionally be seen off the bench for the Pistons in 2008-09.

When it comes to player acquisitions, this is about all the Pistons did.  From this list it appears Dumars has concluded that the Pistons primary problem in 2007-08 was the players sitting on the bench.  Apparently Dumars believes that a better cheering section on the bench will be enough to push the Pistons past the Celtics and Lakers in 2008-09.

In all seriousness, Dumars did more than just change Detroit’s cheering section.  Dumars fired head coach Flip Saunders (who I think is a good coach).  And the Pistons have indicated the following two changes to the team’s rotation.

• First, Amir Johnson has been inserted into the starting line-up.
• And secondly, there are indications that a more concerted effort will be made to give additional minutes to Rodney Stuckey.

Are these moves, though, going to be enough to push the Pistons to the top?

Can Amir Really Make Detroit Fans Happy?

To answer this question, let’s start with the Amir Johnson story.  It was only a few days ago that the Pistons announced that Johnson will be inserted into the starting line-up.   Here is how John W. Davis of Pistonscast responded to this news: I am so freakin happy.  I am excited.  I feel stupendous.  I feel like going for a 7 miles run in Amir’s honor.  Okay, IM HAPPY.

John was not the only one to have this reaction.  In general, fans of the Pistons see Amir starting as a reason to be optimistic about the 2008-09 season.

At first glance, it’s hard to see why the decision to start Johnson would generate such a sentiment.  Johnson was only a second round draft choice in 2005 and has played fewer than 1,o00 minutes in the first three years of his NBA career.

But as detailed last February (see Meet Amir Johnson), what we have seen in these minutes has been quite impressive.  To illustrate, here is how the Pistons returning to the team in 2008-09 (who played at least 500 minutes last season in Detroit)  rank in terms of WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] from 2007-08.

• 1. Chauncey Billups: 0.304 WP48
• 2. Amir Johnson: 0.244 WP48
• 3. Antonio McDyess: 0.172 WP48
• 4. Tayshaun Prince: 0.143 WP48
• 5. Rasheed Wallace: 0.142 WP48
• 6. Jason Maxiell: 0.141 WP48
• 7. Richard Hamilton: 0.131 WP48
• 8. Arron Afflalo: 0.079 WP48
• 9. Rodney Stuckey: 0.069 WP48

When we look at this list we see that the Pistons return seven players who were above average last season (average WP48 is o.100).  So this is an impressive roster.  And in terms of WP48, only Chauncey Billups was more impressive than Amir.

Amir only played 764 minutes last season.  So this list - at first glance - suggests that giving more minutes to Amir will lead to many additional wins in 2008-09.  I am not sure, though, that this first glance is really accurate.

To see the source of my doubts, let’s first consider how Detroit allocated minutes at the center and power forward positions last season:

• The primary rotation players - Antonio McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson - played 7,168 and produced 24.2 wins.
• The bench players - Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed, Primoz Brezec, Cheik Samb, and Walter Hermann - played 729 minutes and produced 0.9 wins.

Last season McDyess and Wallace played about 30 minutes per contest.  Even with McDyess moving to the bench, it’s hard to see how his minutes are going to decline substantially.  Therefore for Johnson to get many more minutes - assuming Brown gets the 729 minutes from the bench players (he probably gets more) — the team is going to have to transfer minutes from Maxiell.

Maxiell was above average last season, but not nearly as productive - on a per-minute basis - as Johnson.  Let’s imagine that the Pistons simply switched the minutes these two players played.  Specifically, let’s say Johnson played 1,768 minutes in 2008-09 (what Maxiell played last season) and Maxiell plays 764 minutes (again, what Johnson played last season).

Last year Johnson produced 3.9 wins last season while Maxiell produced 5.2.  If we reverse the minutes the players play -and production per minute doesn’t change - then Johnson will produce 9.0 wins and Maxiell will offer 2.2.  In sum, the combined wins from these two players will increase from 9.1 to 11.2.  Yes, the move to Johnson might be worth about two more victories.

Now it’s possible that the Pistons could give even more minutes to Johnson.  And that could lead to more wins.  But to take this step the Pistons would have to take minutes from McDyess or Wallace (and don’t forget Kwame Brown who is also going to see some playing time).  And I just can’t see the minutes of McDyess and Wallace falling far below 30 minutes per contest.

So let me summarize how I see the move to start Amir:

• Although Amir is the most productive big man on the Pistons (on a per-minute basis) most of the other big man are above average players. So the gain from switching minutes is less than what we would see if Amir was given the minutes of a truly below average player.
• In addition, I just can’t see the Pistons substantially reducing the playing time of McDyess and Wallace. Therefore the minutes Johnson will play - even as starter - will be limited.

Given these two points, the gains the Pistons will see from starting Amir will probably be quite small.

Can Stuckey Help?

Although these gains are small, at least the movement to Amir will likely take the Pistons in a positive direction.  The plan to play Stuckey more may actually hold this team back.

As we saw in the Amir story, minutes are finite.  If Stuckey is going to play more, someone else has to play less.  When we look back at the WP48 list - and see that Stuckey is the least productive returning Piston - it’s hard to conclude that giving more minutes to Stuckey will make this team better.

Before Stuckey fans get to angry about that last statement, let me note that although Stuckey was below average for an NBA player last season, he was above average for a rookie (rookies tend to post a WP48 that’s below 0.050). Furthermore, young players tend to get better. All that being said, Stuckey is going to have to get substantially better before an increase in his playing time is justified. As the above list indicates, Chauncey Billups is the most productive player on the team and the fifth most productive point guard in the league.  Although Stuckey will probably get better, it’s unlikely that he will start posting a WP48 in excess of 0.300.

Of course the Pistons could take minutes from Rip Hamilton.  Hamilton does offer more than Stuckey, but the difference is much smaller.  One should remember, though, that Hamilton didn’t seem happy that his minutes were cut by Flip Saunders. It may make Hamilton quite unhappy if Michael Curry - the team’s new head coach -cuts Rip’s minutes even more.

Getting Better?

When the off-season began, Detroit fans were promised substantial changes.  When we look at all that has happened, though, it’s hard to see how this team has closed the gap on the teams they must defeat to win a title.   Certainly the two big moves - regarding Amir and Stuckey - are unlikely to add much to the team’s victory totals.

All of this means that the Pistons are unlikely to win a title in 2000. Although I am a fan of Detroit (having been born there); I just can’t see this team catching the Celtics.  And I certainly can’t see this team catching the Lakers.

So the Pistons’ 2009 season - unlike the Detroit Shock’s 2008 WNBA season - will end with a loss.  And when that happens, I hope fans of the Pistons tune in to see the Shock try and defend their WNBA title.  If the Shock are successful, it will be their fourth title in seven years.  And that should help ease any pain the Detroit basketball fans feel from yet another Pistons failure.

- DJ

IS THAT A GUN IN YOUR HAND AMIR?

What’s Going On World?

John W. Davis here.  I have to share this with you because I know you will love this. Mr. Rodney Stuckey and the great Mr. Amir Johnson.  This is one of the best Pistons Youtube Mixes out there.  For your reference my favorite rapper is the guy you will here rapping over the video!  FNF! 

Enjoy! THE FUTURE IS NOW!

Peace,

John W. Davis

www.pistonscast.com

What’s Going On World?????!!!!???????!!!!!

John W. Davis here.  I am so freakin happy.  I am excited.  I feel stupendous.  I feel like going for a 7 mile run in Amir’s honor.  Okay, IM HAPPY. 

The day has finally come.  Shout to Mike from Los Angeles on the Email tip and Deven for the text message.

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Check out the DET NEWS:

Curry: Johnson is Pistons’ starting power forward

Chris McCosky / The Detroit News

AUBURN HILLS — Calling him a “welcome addition,” coach Michael Curry made official Saturday what he’s long been hinting at — Amir Johnson, as of now, is the Pistons’ starting power forward.

“Amir does things without having to have the ball,” Curry said. “He’s able to pick up baskets through his activity, by running the floor and playing off the other four guys. He does all the intangible things, and through that he’s able to create offensive opportunities for himself.”

“I am glad I got the opportunity,” Johnson said. “It’s been a long time coming. I’ve been sitting on that bench for three years. I am ready to play.”

Johnson, drafted No. 56 overall out of high school in 2005, has never started a regular-season game for the Pistons. He played in a career-high 62 games last season and in eight playoff games.

“I am comfortable out there now,” he said. “I’ve been playing with these guys for four years. I play against all-stars in the summer in Vegas and in Los Angeles. Now is my chance, and I am very excited.”

Curry was careful not to make any direct comparisons to former Piston Ben Wallace, but he believes Johnson can bring some of the same intangibles to the starting unit Wallace did.

“Ben could make a tremendous impact on a game without having any plays run for him. Amir is like Ben in that sense,” Curry said. “Amir can impact a game by how he rebounds, he can impact on the speed in which we play, offensively and defensively. His presence will be a welcome addition to that group.”

Johnson was flattered by the comparison, but like Curry, kept it in perspective.

“I just do the little stuff, the garbage can stuff,” he said. “I get rebounds and putbacks. I know the other guys like to shoot, so every miss I am going to try and get every ball.”

Johnson, at 6-feet-11, is heavier (230) and stronger than he’s ever been, but the worry has always been whether he could hold his position defensively. Curry doesn’t share that worry.

“We tell him, ‘The best way you can handle guys stronger than you is to front the post and use your quickness,’ ” Curry said. “We just tell him to play to his strengths. Most of the guys that are stronger than him are usually stronger than most other guys, too. He might not be as strong as some, but they aren’t going to be able to run with him or be as active as he is.”

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I want to know what you think.  Amir was announced the started about four weeks before the season starts.  Is this good?  Should Coach Curry have let Johnson, Maxiell, and Brown fight it out a bit longer?  Let us know.

Peace,

John W. Davis

www.pistonscast.com

Whats Going On World?

John W. Davis here.  You have to check out my man Keith Langlois at www.truebluepistons.com  It’s the official blog of the Detroit Pistons.  Keith is practically at pratice every day and check out some of these observations.

————————————————————————————-

• 1. OK, before I get another flood of “how tall is Amir” questions, I asked him the other day and he said during pre-camp physicals they told him he measured in at 6-foot-11and 226 pounds.

2. Curry mixed up the three five-man units from the first day to the second, never with more than two starters to a unit, but the constant from Tuesday to Wednesday was the big man pairing of Rasheed Wallace and Johnson. I asked him if there was anything to read into that regarding the fifth starting spot.“They work well together,” he said. “When you’re trying to balance out the team, you look at trying to have one of our younger guys with the veterans.”Kwame Brown and Antonio McDyess were teammates today, as were Jason Maxiell and Cheikh Samb. On Tuesday, it was Brown and Maxiell, McDyess and Samb.

3.The defense has won more than its share of battles with the offense, but Walter Sharpe had a nice moment when he grabbed an offensive rebound, then hit a half-hook from about 12 feet over Tayshaun Prince.

4. Curry wrapped up the practice but putting the offense in situations where they’d have to go the length of the court, down by two points, in eight seconds. Then inbound the ball at half-court, down three points. Rasheed Wallace designed a play for his red team that netted him a potential tying 3-pointer. He missed, but Johnson made a spectacular play that saw him get fouled while almost tapping the rebound in.

• 5. Curry only scheduled one session Wednesday after going hard twice on Tuesday. The schedule for Thursday calls for another three-hour morning practice, then the popular open practice at Oakland University 6:30-8:30 p.m.

———————————————————————————–

AMIR IS 6-11 226 now!

Sounds like a nice size to start with Rasheed.  Oh Wait in practice guess who he Big man pairing is,  Rasheed. OMG!  COACH CURRY, you are the greatest. LOL

Peace,

John W. Davis

www.pistonscast.com

IT'S HIS TIME!

Here’s something from the “True Blue Pistons” blog from Pistons.com, written by Keith Langlois.

http://truebluepistons.blogspot.com/2008/09/5-hot-questions-of-pistons-preseason.html

1. Who starts in Antonio McDyess’ spot?
Curry has said it’s an open competition for that spot between Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown. And I think he’s going in with a completely open mind.

But somebody has to trot out there with Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince as the fifth starter on the first day of camp. My guess is that will be Amir Johnson for a variety of reasons.

Indications are that Curry would prefer to keep Maxiell coming off the bench. He thrived in that role last year, almost always ratcheting up the level of intensity with one of his signature plays – a ferocious lob dunk, knifing in from nowhere to snare an offensive rebound, barreling across the lane to swat away a shot spectacularly.

Curry said this summer it was important to keep Maxiell fresh, citing the Orlando playoff series when he played extremely well for a couple of games while guarding Dwight Howard, then looking lifeless for the next few games because of the effort he expended. For continuity’s sake, it would be easier to limit the minutes of someone coming off the bench as opposed to starting.

Brown seems more likely than Maxiell to draw consideration, all things being equal. The foremost appeal to starting Brown is the freedom it would provide Wallace in not having to guard the opposition’s top post player to start games, keeping him out of foul trouble. But there are equally compelling arguments to be made for bringing Brown off the bench.

It might serve him well, for example, to limit expectations after a career in which he’s been beaten down consistently for never living up to the status of being the No. 1 pick in the 2001 draft. There’s also something to be said for bringing Brown in late in the first or early in the second quarters to play against the opposition’s backup big man – which should play to Brown’s advantage nine nights out of 10.

The intrigue with Johnson is how his athleticism and ability to cover so much of the court defensively meshes with Curry’s vision for how he wants the Pistons to play. He wants to create offense out of defense. Curry raved at the Las Vegas Summer League about Johnson’s knack for smothering the pick-and-roll. And if the Pistons are forcing turnovers and increasing their open-court opportunities, that plays perfectly to Johnson’s strength.

One more thing appealing about Johnson starting: Pairing him with the savvy Wallace figures to cover his youthful gaffes and accelerate his learning curve. Playing with four big-time scorers frees Johnson to do what he does best in the half-court offense, too – fly to the rim to pick up offensive rebounds and garbage baskets.”

Looks like it will probably be Amir. Go Amir!

Check out this vid!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1CqtnnPtSs

And listen to the end: “You know, guys like that don’t get a chance to play, and play hard in practice…”

Time to up those minutes!

-Ryan aka Young Rrrr aka Lil’ Ryan

FREE AMIR JOHNSON!!!

What 99% of the Pistons faithful don’t realize is that Amir can really score, like big time.

I know because I have seen him do it. Here is an interesting recent quote from Scott Perry on Amir from nba.com/pistons

“Amir hasn’t had the opportunity to play consistent minutes for 82 games,” Perry said. “Spot here, spot there and he’s shown very good potential. This year he gets the opportunity to play. If he’s playing every night for 82 games, what you look for is to play to his strengths. He’s extremely athletic, runs the floor, blocks shots, can rebound – do the things that make him look good but, more importantly, help our team win.

“All that other stuff – developing his shot and those things – come later. The big thing for him this year is being consistent, night in and night out. It will be his first opportunity to play the fourth game on the fifth night after having played the first three. Learning to do that, at a level that is expected of him, that’s what this year is about for him.”

——————–
Amir has definitely got the game to become a 18 - 12 guy in next 2 to 3 years. People forget that he still only 21.

http://www.nba.com/pistons/news/pf_080922.html?rss=true

Sincerely,

Mike

What’s Going On World?

John W. Davis here. WOOO!!! FREE THROW LINE DUNK! DIDNT KNOW AMIR COULD DO THAT DID YOU?

He is my 5th Starter.  How about you?

Peace,

John W. Davis

www.pistonscast.com

Amir: "I'm starting Max" Jason's thought bubble: "Damn, I thought I was good in the Playoffs"

 What’s Going on World?

John W. Davis here.  The Valley Boy, I mean Amir “Soft as Cotton no more” Johnson will get 1st crack at starting next to Rasheed!  I Love it.  Coach Curry you are my idol!  (FOR NOW)

From the Detroit News:

At the start of camp, it appears that Amir Johnson is going to get the first look at winning the fifth starting spot and play alongside Rasheed Wallace in the front court. But, if Johnson can’t secure the spot, Brown could slide up. He is the team’s lone big-bodied, true post player and he would free Wallace to be a full-fledged power forward, as opposed to playing a hybrid-type frontcourt role.  

It was only a matter of time in my opinion, that a logical, sane coach would try to start Amir and see what he can get from him.  When Amir is in the game, he rebounds and blocks with the best of them.  Give him some real minutes and lets see what my boy Amir can really do.  (I already know, I just want the world to know.)

Who do you think should start?

Peace,

John W. Davis