Which one was better?

As I have noted in the past, I was born in Detroit and grew up a Pistons fan. And since sports allegiance doesn’t (or at least shouldn’t) change as you age, I remain a Pistons fan.

My memory of the Pistons extends all the way back to the days of Bob Lanier (I can still remember when he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks). But I truly began to follow the Pistons when Isiah Thomas was drafted (in 1981 when I was eleven). The story I believed growing up was that Isiah put the Pistons on the map, and it was Isiah who led the Detroit to the team’s first two championships.

As I noted last summer, the story I grew up believing is not told by Wins Produced (see Looking Back at the Bad Boys). Wins Produced indicates that The Bad Boys were led by Dennis Rodman and Bill Laimbeer (not Isiah Thomas).

After Rodman and Laimbeer moved on, the Pistons became quite a bit worse. The Grant Hill era saw some success, but it wasn’t until another productive big man - Ben Wallace - came on the scene that the Pistons once again contended for the title.

Which backcourt dynamic duo was greater?

Discussing Chauncey and Isiah on Pistonscast

Unlike what we saw with Rodman and Laimbeer, though, when Big Ben left the Pistons didn’t fall apart. Since Wallace departed in 2006 the Pistons have had two +50 win seasons. And the leading producer of wins on each team has been Chauncey Billups.

Table One: The Detroit Pistons in 2006-07 and 2005-06

Table Two: The Detroit Pistons in 2007-08

All of this serves as a background to a recent conversation I had with John W. Davis and Deven Khrucell. John and Deven are the hosts of Pistonscast, “the number one podcast for die-hard Pistons fans.” As I remember, last spring I was a guest on the program and the subject of Allen Iverson came up. As I often note, “the Answer” is not quite as productive as many believe. And I noted at the time, I think Isiah was a more productive player than Iverson.

Such a statement may make Iverson fans unhappy, but is not exactly disputed by “die-hard Pistons fans.” But as I often do, I could not leave well enough alone. I also indicated last spring that Chauncey Billups - the current point guard in Detroit - is more productive than the one considered the greatest player in team history.

When I noted that Billups offers more today than Isiah did in the 1980s, Deven expressed some unhappiness. As a result, I was asked to return to the show to debate Deven on the relative merits of Chauncey and Isiah.

This debate is now posted at Pistonscast. The specific podcasts you need to hear - if you are interested in this discussion - are Episodes 62 and 63. Episode 62 is the first half of our discussion. We begin on the topic of Kwame Brown, but after awhile move into the discussion of Billups and Thomas. This debate is then continued in episode 63.

Essentially, Deven’s perspective is that the numbers are not enough to tell us that Chauncey is worth more than Isiah. Of course, I disagree. The numbers in basketball do explain wins. And those numbers go back to the individuals. Furthermore, it’s not clear to me how we could ever objectively test the propositions put forward by the non-numbers crowd. At least, I can’t see how we can test such propositions without numbers.

If Iverson was the Answer, Was Isiah the Question?

More on Billups, Isiah, and Iverson

For those who wish to see more numbers on this subject, here is a comparison of the career numbers of Billups, Thomas, and Iverson.

Table Three: Comparing Chauncey Billups, Isiah Thomas, and Allen Iverson

As Table Three indicates, the key stats are shooting efficiency and turnovers. Unlike Isiah and Iverson - who are both below average with respect to shots from the field and turnovers - Billups excels with respect to each of these stats. Consequently, Billups has a bigger impact on team wins.

If we turn to Wins Produced, we see the following career marks [in Wins Produced and Wins Produced per 48 minutes]:

Chauncey Billups: 90.9 Wins Produced, 0.181 WP48

Isiah Thomas: 97.4 Wins Produced, 0.132 WP48

Allen Iverson: 64.8 Wins Produced, 0.090 WP48

And if we look at each player’s career best marks [in WP48], again we see Billups coming out on top:

Chauncey Billups: 16.0 Wins Produced, 0.304 WP48 [2007-08]

Isiah Thomas: 18.6 Wins Produced, 0.289 WP48 [1984-85]

Allen Iverson: 10.0 Wins Produced, 0.152 WP48 [2004-05]

So those are the numbers. My sense is that Deven will not be convinced. And hopefully as you listen, you will hear that it’s okay if we don’t all agree. The conversation, by itself, is still quite fun (and hopefully interesting).

One More Interview

Last Thursday I was also a guest on the Jack Warkenthein’s Show - Where Wall Street Meets Main Street - on the Biz Radio Network. If you turn to the Podcasts for Jack’s show you can listen to my two segments on August 21 (part two and three). One should keep in mind, though, that this interview was done at 7:20am Central Time (the show is broadcast in Texas). This is 6:20am at my home in Utah. You are listening to me speak just minutes after I woke up that morning. So I don’t guarantee that I am entirely coherent (which probably makes the whole conversation even more interesting).

Still, I do think I offered some reasonable comments on Olympic basketball, the Rockets acquisition of Ron Artest, and the Mavericks acquisition of Jason Kidd. I think I also said something about why high oil prices could be good news. Again, the whole conversation was pretty early in the morning.

- DJ

www.dberri.wordpress.com

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Hey Guys,

Good show, though you guys spend a little too much time fantasizing over who we will never get rather than on realistic prospects. AND you are way too hard on Chauncey. He gave us a lot playing with injuries, more than Sheed. Billups will never be Isaiah, but I’d like to see him around one more year to help Stuckey with the transition. Remember we took Boston to 6 games with a bad coach. Now we have a good one and Walter Sharpe to boot!

Now, more importantly, time for you guys to dig into those deep pockets and buy a pot! I recently updated my website. Take a look when you get a chance.

All the best,

John

www.johndix.com

I fly in to Mi. on Friday. Can’t wait.

Episode 58!

-Free Agency Update: James Jones from Portland or C.J. Miles from Utah

-Pistons Summer League Roster: What to expect from The Bench Babies?

-Top Listener Email: Richard from Howell, Michigan

I just wanted to share a video that our dear listener Richard edited and posted on Youtube.

The video is about Ben Wallace. On Episode 58, Richard emailed us and asked a simple but interesting question.

Hey guys,
what do you think about Ben Wallace? Do you think he will ever wear a Pistons uniform again?

I think if we traded Chauncey and Maxiell for him we could win another Championship with Stuckey running the point.

-Richard

Obviously we know how Richard feels especially after watching that Nostalgic video. Where did that Ben Wallace of old go?

If you want to know where Deven and I stand on this issue tune in to Episode 58!

Hi Pistonscast,

I thought you would find the following post to be a conversation starter. Yes, I think the numbers indicate that Flip Saunders is a better coach than people believe.

Maybe Flip Saunders is a Good Coach

Dave

P.S. And yes, Chauncey is still better than Isiah.

David J. Berri
Associate Professor of Economics
California State University-Bakersfield
dberri.wordpress.com

See this is a problem alot. Sheed not playing out of the post. He can dominate down there but he chooses not to do it. Tayshaun didn’t play well in Game 3 but I think Chauncey was worst. I think overall we played better without Chauncey on the floor. If he can’t be aggressive he is holding us back right now.

We were -25 when Chauncey was on the court. (We only lost by 14 points) He was tentative and scared so he doesn’t need to start right now.

We were +3 when Rodney Stuckey was on the floor. (We lost by 14 points) Also our defense is better with Stuckey on the floor!

Chauncey Billups has already said he wont be 100% for the playoffs. He doesnt even have full confidence in himself so why should we as Pistons fan. I don’t right now and you shouldn’t either. My only problem with the Pistons is when they don’t try. Game 1 we tried and we lost and thats fine. Game 2 we tried and won and thats great. Game 3 we played about half a game and lost by 14 and thats not ok.

I would rather start Rodney Stuckey, Lindsey Hunter, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Antonio McDyess right now because they try their best, game in and game out.

This wishy washy play is tiring and I’m out.

-John

I’ve been thinking about your whole Isiah Thomas / Chauncey Billups debate.  As much as I love Chauncey, you can’t say that he’s better than Zeke.  No way.  And I know D. Berri is gonna show us some stats that prove this and that.

But I was in Geography class the other day, and my teacher told us (I know Deven is gonna love this); ‘There are lies, damn lies and stats’.

To some extent I think it’s true, you can prove anything with stats.  However when Isiah twisted/snapped/dislocated his ankle or whatever.  He went out for 3 minutes and then came back in and took over the Lakers.  I’m not sure if there is a ‘Heart’ statistic, but Zeke would be the All-Time
Leader.  Period.

Some things just don’t show up in the stat columns.  Why is Michael Jordan the greatest player ever? Not because he has the highest Point Per Game average for a career.  Its because of those games in which he displayed heart! The Flu game.. because of those games he won. 

Players like Zeke and Mike carried their team when they needed it.  That’s why they’re great players.  They showed heart, hustle, pride and determination, not the Highest Assist to Turnover ratio or the best Wins produced stat.  Besides, there is only one stat that really matters; Winning.  And the truly great players do whatever it takes to win.

That’s just how i feel.

Conor Faulker

VERSUS

No way in heezzy is Chauncey Billups better than Isiah Thomas. “Mr. Big shot” doesn’t come close to “Mr. Piston”. Isiah displayed the heart, the mental, and physical toughness that has come to define what Detroit Piston basketball is all about. Chauncey Billups is indeed very talented. But if he played with the kind of determination and intestinal fortitude that my man Zeke played with, there would be way more banners to hang in the rafters at the Palce of Auburn Hills.

Deven

That’s the thing about any sport. You are bound to get hurt. You are bound to get nicked up. An injury is your bodies way of telling you I want to take a break. Your body is saying “I am going to hurt myself to force you to take that break”.

Tune into Episode 48, where we break down what the Pistons should do if Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince or Rasheed Wallace get injured. KNOCK ON WOOD!

Quick Summary:

-Chauncey Billups should be replaced by Rodney Stuckey and backed up by Lindsey Hunter and maybe even a little Juan Dixon. We also feel Tayshaun should get alot of the ball handling and play making duties.

-Richard Hamilton should be replaced by Arron Afflalo. We love his defensive and we believe in his jumper even if he doesn’t.

-Tayshaun Prince is a hard guy to replace. He does everything for the Pistons. We think that in general Jarvis Hayes should replace him but it all depends on the matchup. Sometimes Arron Afflalo should start to bring that defensive intensity. Even Walter Hermann should get a chance every once in a while.

-Rasheed Wallace we feel he should be replaced by Theo Ratliff. We love defense and so do you. So why shouldn’t one of the best shot blockers in NBA History start in place of Rasheed Wallace. If Sheed is out expect big minutes for Jason Maxiell, Antonio McDyess and even Amir Johnson the VALLEY BOY!!! You know we love you Amir.

We feel the Pistons can win with only 3 out of their Big 4. We even feel that any 2 of our top 4 players can hang with any tandem in the league.

What do you think? Hit us up on the comment section below!

DETROIT BASKETBALL!!!

-John

Now… now… now, I know Chauncey will come back soon. SO DON’T WORRY! But let’s imagine that his hammy was just a little too tender to return this season. Can Rodney Stuckey step up to the Plate? Could the young thunder cat accept the challenge and fill the shoes of the great “C-Billz” carving out his own niche with the Detroit Pistons? Or will his inexperience cause him to succumb to the pressure?

Those are some good questions, right?

Post your comments below and let us know what you think? Or give us a call at (313) 769-3287 and leave an audio comment!

Deven

Listen to how humble he is!  This interview was from towards the end of the season when Stuckey was the Player of the Game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

      Here is my  Rodney Stuckey Analysis.

The first document is the Pistons after 80 games.  As you can see, the team is led by Chauncey Billups.  He is easily their most productive player.  Average WP48 is 0.100, and so you can see that Billups gets quite a bit of help.  Prince, McDyess, Wallace, Hamilton, Maxiell, and Johnson are all above average (Amir is second to Billups in WP48).

The rookies, Stuckey and Afflalo, are each below average.  But not by much.

Relative to other guards, each rookie looks pretty good.  I compared Stuckey to both point guards and shooting guards.  Among point guards, only Conley has a higher Win Score per 48 minute (this is not the same as WP48).  Win Score does not take into account team defense, and when that is considered (as it is in calculating WP48), Stuckey is the more productive player (in other words, Stuckey has the highest WP48 among point guards).  I would add that Stuckey is also more productive than Billups was his rookie season.

Turning to shooting guards… Durant and Afflalo have higher Win Scores.  But the difference is small. If you wanted to argue that Stuckey is the most productive guard, I think you would have a case.  For comparison sake I also consider Rip Hamilton’s rookie numbers.  Again, Stuckey is much better.

Looking at the individual stats, Stuckey is able to rebound and get steals.  He also gets some assists and is not too bad with respect to turnovers.  Where he has problems is in the area of shooting efficiency.  When he gets his shots to fall more consistently, Stuckey will be an above average guard.

Evaluating the First Round Shooting Guards

Below Average Numbers in Red

Points-per-shot = [PTS-FTM]/FGA

Adjusted Field Goal Percentage = PPS/2

Net Possessions = Rebounds + Steals - Turnovers

Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF

season almost complete