Posts tagged ‘Detroit’

The Pistons Close the Gap

Does all this mean that the Pistons have closed the gap?  In the regular season the Pistons had an efficiency differential of 8.17.  In the post-season this differential has declined to 5.10.  Yes, the Celtics still boast a better differential even when we compare just the post-season performance of each team.

One should note, though, that the Pistons have faced better competition than Boston.  So one could argue that the Pistons have closed the gap.  Certainly as a Pistons fan I hope this is the case.

Had the Pistons maintained their regular season performance we would not have to discuss strength of competition.  If that were the case the Pistons would have thus far surpassed the Celtics.  Why were the Pistons unable to maintain what we saw in the regular season? One answer, as detailed in The Wages of Wins, is that playoff performance tends to be worse than the regular season (due to improved competition).  One Piston, though, has decline a bit more than we would expect.

Table Three: The Detroit Pistons after the First Two Rounds of the 2008 Playoffs

As Table Three reveals, virtually all of Detroit’s decline can be attributed to Rasheed Wallace.  In the regular season his WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] was 0.142. In the post-season his mark is only 0.031. 

Wallace is not the only one whose performance has changed.  Chauncey Billups is also offering less while Tayshaun Prince is now leading the team in Wins Produced.  If Wallace and Billups can return to form, and Prince keeps producing, the Pistons might just advance to the NBA Finals.  And if that happens, I think the Pistons might just win their fourth NBA title.  Or to put it another way, I think the winner of the Celtics-Pistons series should be favored over either the Lakers or Spurs.

Let me close by noting that fans of Boston and Detroit should look forward to a great series.  As I noted a few weeks ago, the current edition of each team is the best in each franchise’s history.  In sum, this should be real fun (and even more fun if the Pistons win).

David J. Berri
Associate Professor of Economics
California State University-Bakersfield

www.dberri.wordpress.com