Posts tagged ‘Wages of Wins Journal’

by Prof. David Berri

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On Sunday, while most basketball fans were tuned to CBS to watch the NCAA Tournament, ESPN telecast a game between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons.  As a fan of Detroit, I decided to look away from the tournament and look in on the Pistons basketball.  The picture was almost good.  Specifically the Pistons — without the services of Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, and Richard Hamilton - managed to lead most of the way before faltering at the end.

Although the game was entertaining, the comments of Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy were more interesting.  At different points in the broadcast the conversation turned to why the Pistons have faltered.  And once again the viewers were able to see “expert” broadcasters try and reconcile these three “facts.”

• Allen Iverson is one of the greatest players to ever play the game.
• Chauncey Billups is a very good player, but not one of the greatest players to ever play the game.
• The Pistons with Allen Iverson are clearly worse than the Pistons with Billups.

The simplest way to reconcile these three statements is to acknowledge that the first is not true.  At least, if we focus on productivity, Iverson is not one of the most productive NBA players in history.

But if you can’t make that leap, then you have to resort to words like “team chemistry”.  Unfortunately, since “team chemistry” can’t be quantified (unlike player productivity) we can never properly evaluate the merits of the “chemistry” argument.

As I have noted throughout the season - most recently last month - one does not need “chemistry” to explain the Pistons demise.  No, much of the decline (although not all) is tied to the fact that Iverson is not as productive as Billups.

Another Reason Why Trading Billups was a Good Idea

Again, I have said this before.  What I wished to add to the subject is something I observed in looking at the numbers Billups is posting in Denver this season.

Table One: The Denver Nuggets after 70 games in 2008-09

As Table One notes, Billups has produced more wins than any other player on Denver’s roster this season.  But if we compare his production to what he did last year in Detroit, he clearly has declined.  Last year he posted a 0.304 WP48. This year in Denver his mark is only 0.188.  Yes, he is still above average (average is 0.100). But he clearly is offering less.

When we look at the individual numbers - posted in Table Two - we can see where he has declined.  This season Billups has seen declines with respect to both his shooting efficiency and assists.

Table Two: Evaluating Chauncey Billups

The next question we should ask is why Billups is doing less.  And one issue I would emphasize is his age.  Billups is 32 and will turn 33 in September.   This means he is rapidly approaching the age where playing basketball in the NBA is not possible.  To illustrate, across the past 30 years, 95% of player seasons were played by players who were younger than 35 years of age.   In sum, the clock is approaching midnight for Mr. Big Shot and when it hits 12, he won’t be of much use to an NBA team.

All of this suggests that the Iverson-Billups trade was a good move by Joe Dumars (Detroit’s GM). Yes, fans of Detroit are suffering this year.  But as noted previously, Iverson’s contract expires and this gives Detroit hope for next year.  Plus, Dumars got rid of a player that will be approaching 35 years of age in 2010-11 while collecting $13 million.

In sum, it looks like Dumars has done the same thing to Billups he did to Ben Wallace.  He let a player depart whose production was destined to slip.  And this is something every prudent general manager should be doing.  As the late Cotton Fitzsimmons once said (and I can’t find the quote but I think he said something like this): “Please don’t let my great players retire on me.”

-Prof. David Berri

The Wages of Wins Journal

Are we just talking about practice?

Before Allen Iverson came to town the Detroit Pistons were undefeated.  In the ten games with “The Answer” the Pistons have been 5-5.  The story told by the Pistons to explain this outcome is that the team simply hasn’t found the right “chemistry”.  Here is how Iverson described the situation.

“(Iverson) talked Saturday about the importance of finding chemistry with a new team through practice.

“I’ve been through it before,” Iverson said. “I think the toughest part of it has been our schedule. We’ve been on the road a lot. That was tough. For me, it’s just getting a chance to settle in.

“The most important thing is getting more practice time.”

In an effort to get more practice time, Michael Curry - Detroit’s head coach - called for an additional practice session on Thanksgiving. Although I am sure the team was not happy with this decision, with but one exception, everyone made it in today.  The lone exception was none other than Mr. Iverson.

Curry has said that Iverson will pay a “hefty” fine for missing practice.  But I am not sure this is necessary.  In fact, I think I agree with Iverson’s actions (not his words).  Practice is probably not going to make much difference.

Iverson vs. Billups

To see my point, consider what Iverson has done this season, as well as across his career.  For comparison purposes, let’s also consider the numbers Chauncey Billups - the primary player the Pistons gave up to acquire Iverson - has posted.

• Iverson Career (prior to this season): 0.090 WP48
• Iverson with the Nuggets in 2008-09: 0.083 WP48
• Iverson with the Pistons in 2008-09: 0.086 WP48
• Billups Career (prior to this season): 0.181 WP48
• Billups with the Pistons in 2008-09: 0.254 WP48
• Billups with the Nuggets in 2008-09: 0.225 WP48

When we look at Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48] for these players, we see that Billups has done more than Iverson.  And this is the picture we see if we look at the numbers across each player’s career, as well as what each player has done this year.

Given the disparity in what these players offer, it’s not surprising the Pistons have struggled somewhat with Iverson (although I think they are better than a 0.500 team).  And it’s not surprising the Nuggets have improved with Billups.

Changing the Story in Denver

Right now, though, the Pistons are in denial (at least publicly).  As for the Nuggets, the denial has apparently ended.

The following article from the Denver Post — Point guard praise: Billups over A.I. - indicates that George Karl is no longer one of Iverson’s biggest fans:

Unquestionably, the Allen Iverson experiment produced some scintillating moments for the Nuggets and their fans. But the more coach George Karl watches Chauncey Billups run his offense - and watches Iverson lead the Pistons - it has become clearer that Iverson, well, wasn’t the answer.

“There are less bad plays, more solid plays,” Karl said. “I think the wasteful, cheap possessions that we used to have 10 to 15 a game, they don’t exist very much anymore.”

What always irked Karl was Iverson’s inability to run the offense like a general. Arguably, Iverson shot too much, and like Karl said, Denver could outscore about half the teams in the NBA. But when it came to beating the elite teams, the Nuggets had too many questions with “The Answer” - about his shot selection, his dedication to defense and his ability/inability to trust his teammates.

“We have contested-shot charts, bad-shot charts and cheap defensive possessions,” Karl said. “I would say that when A.I. was here, we had most games in the teens of contested, tough shots, sometimes in the 20s. And I don’t think we’ve had a double-digit one since (Billups has) been here.

“I don’t think there’s any question coaching a team for many minutes, without a passing and point guard mentality, is frustrating for a coach. Sometimes I saw something, but I couldn’t get it done on the court because I didn’t have a playmaker out there.”

But with Detroit, Karl thinks Iverson can thrive, because he is surrounded by more veteran playmakers and will trust his teammates, as opposed to forcing a shot he thought he had a better chance of making.

“A.I., at times, had trouble trusting the guy he’s throwing it to,” Karl said.

It’s important to note that Iverson had practice problems in Philadelphia with three different head coaches (Larry Brown, Chris Ford, and Maurice Cheeks). And he now has a problem with Curry.  But he never had a problem with Karl (at least none that we have heard about).  Despite consistently practicing with the Nuggets, though, Iverson only posted a 0.134 WP48 last season.  This is above average, but less than what Billups offered in even his worst season in Detroit.

Now it’s certainly possible that practice makes perfect.  But it seems unlikely, at this point in Iverson’s career, practice is going to transform “the Answer” into a great player.  So maybe the Pistons shouldn’t be too upset when Iverson skips practice.  Maybe he’s just telling Curry — despite what Iverson says publicly — that practice really isn’t going to help.  And after ”the Answer” departs Detroit, I suspect Curry will follow Karl’s lead and tell us that he agrees.

-Prof. David Berri

dberri.wordpress.com