Posts tagged ‘Wages of Wins’

by Prof. David Berri

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On Sunday, while most basketball fans were tuned to CBS to watch the NCAA Tournament, ESPN telecast a game between the Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons.  As a fan of Detroit, I decided to look away from the tournament and look in on the Pistons basketball.  The picture was almost good.  Specifically the Pistons — without the services of Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, and Richard Hamilton - managed to lead most of the way before faltering at the end.

Although the game was entertaining, the comments of Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy were more interesting.  At different points in the broadcast the conversation turned to why the Pistons have faltered.  And once again the viewers were able to see “expert” broadcasters try and reconcile these three “facts.”

• Allen Iverson is one of the greatest players to ever play the game.
• Chauncey Billups is a very good player, but not one of the greatest players to ever play the game.
• The Pistons with Allen Iverson are clearly worse than the Pistons with Billups.

The simplest way to reconcile these three statements is to acknowledge that the first is not true.  At least, if we focus on productivity, Iverson is not one of the most productive NBA players in history.

But if you can’t make that leap, then you have to resort to words like “team chemistry”.  Unfortunately, since “team chemistry” can’t be quantified (unlike player productivity) we can never properly evaluate the merits of the “chemistry” argument.

As I have noted throughout the season - most recently last month - one does not need “chemistry” to explain the Pistons demise.  No, much of the decline (although not all) is tied to the fact that Iverson is not as productive as Billups.

Another Reason Why Trading Billups was a Good Idea

Again, I have said this before.  What I wished to add to the subject is something I observed in looking at the numbers Billups is posting in Denver this season.

Table One: The Denver Nuggets after 70 games in 2008-09

As Table One notes, Billups has produced more wins than any other player on Denver’s roster this season.  But if we compare his production to what he did last year in Detroit, he clearly has declined.  Last year he posted a 0.304 WP48. This year in Denver his mark is only 0.188.  Yes, he is still above average (average is 0.100). But he clearly is offering less.

When we look at the individual numbers - posted in Table Two - we can see where he has declined.  This season Billups has seen declines with respect to both his shooting efficiency and assists.

Table Two: Evaluating Chauncey Billups

The next question we should ask is why Billups is doing less.  And one issue I would emphasize is his age.  Billups is 32 and will turn 33 in September.   This means he is rapidly approaching the age where playing basketball in the NBA is not possible.  To illustrate, across the past 30 years, 95% of player seasons were played by players who were younger than 35 years of age.   In sum, the clock is approaching midnight for Mr. Big Shot and when it hits 12, he won’t be of much use to an NBA team.

All of this suggests that the Iverson-Billups trade was a good move by Joe Dumars (Detroit’s GM). Yes, fans of Detroit are suffering this year.  But as noted previously, Iverson’s contract expires and this gives Detroit hope for next year.  Plus, Dumars got rid of a player that will be approaching 35 years of age in 2010-11 while collecting $13 million.

In sum, it looks like Dumars has done the same thing to Billups he did to Ben Wallace.  He let a player depart whose production was destined to slip.  And this is something every prudent general manager should be doing.  As the late Cotton Fitzsimmons once said (and I can’t find the quote but I think he said something like this): “Please don’t let my great players retire on me.”

-Prof. David Berri

The Wages of Wins Journal

The Answer Comes to Detroit

Two years ago Iverson was traded by Philadelphia to Denver.  Some people - following the logic that Iverson is one of the greatest players to ever play the game — expected Iverson to transform the Denver Nuggets into a title contender.

The numbers suggested otherwise.  Adding Iverson to the Nuggets was not going to be enough for Denver to close the gap with the very top teams in the West.  The inability of this team to contend - when many people thought it would happen - got these people thinking that George Karl should be fired.  After all, with such a “great player” it was hard for fans of Denver to understand how the Nuggets couldn’t win a playoff series. Hence, many people blamed the coach (see Fire George Karl?).

Rather than fire the coach, though, Denver has decided to end the Iverson experiment.  This week the Nuggets sent Iverson to the Detroit Pistons for Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Cheik Samb.

As Jerry Seinfeld notes, in the end all sports fans are simply rooting for clothes.  We are fans of the athletes who wear the uniform of our team.  We are less excited about players wearing different clothes.  Consequently, as a fan of the Pistons (as frequently noted, I was born in Detroit), this trade means I am now a fan of Allen Iverson.

Now that I am a fan of Iverson, let me tell you why he’s so great.  Iverson is very good at getting to the free throw line, he’s good at getting steals, and he avoids personal fouls.  All of these are positives.  If we look at Wins Produced, we see that across the last four seasons Iverson has produced 31.9 wins.  His WP48 across these four seasons is 0.123, which is above average (average is 0.100).  So clearly he helps and that’s why he is one of my favorite players.

Of course if I look at this objective (i.e. not as a fan), I would note that Iverson is simply not as productive as Billups.  A few weeks ago I argued that Billups was more productive than Isiah Thomas.  In that discussion I posted the following table comparing Billups, Thomas, and Iverson.

Table One: Comparing Chauncey Billups, Isiah Thomas, and Allen Iverson

The career numbers of each player indicates that both Thomas and Billups produced more than Iverson (and Billups offered more than Thomas).

If we look at Wins Produced -again, focusing on just the last four years - Billups produced 58.0 wins with a 0.257 WP48.  Yes, Billups was the most productive player in Detroit.  And no, Iverson is not going to make up for the loss of Mr. Big Shot.

My sense is that Joe Dumars - the general manager in Detroit - knows that moving from Billups to Iverson is not a step in the right direction.  The chance of this team winning a title in 2009 has declined. But, given the strength of the Celtics and Lakers, the odds were already against a title in Detroit this season.

So if this trade doesn’t help the Pistons win a title in 2009, why did Dumars pull the trigger?  It appears - and several commentators have made this observation - that the key is Iverson’s expiring contract.  At the end of this season, Iverson’s nearly $22 million salary comes off the books.   With Rasheed Wallace’s contract also expiring, the Pistons only have $33 million in contracts on the books for 2009-10.  And for the summer of 2010, the Pistons only have $11 million in contracts (this does not count the extension Richard Hamilton just signed).  This means that after this season the Pistons can be very aggressive in the free agent market.

All of this tells us that for the Pistons, “the Answer” is not on the court, but on the books.  In other words, one of the “greatest” players to ever play the game has just been acquired because he had an attractive contract.  He was not acquired because Iverson is really all that great (and I say that as one of his biggest fans).

This Year in Detroit and Denver

The problem with acquiring an expiring contract, though, is that expiring contracts don’t win games this year.  Given that Iverson offers less than Billups, how many games is this going to cost Detroit?  If Iverson had played the same minutes as Billups last year - and his productivity stayed the same — he would have produced 7.0 wins.  Billups produced 16.0 wins last year, so the difference is about nine victories.

The Pistons, though, are giving more minutes to Amir Johnson.  And it’s possible that Rodney Stuckey will improve.  So maybe the drop off for Detroit won’t be nine wins.  In other words, Detroit’s victory total could still eclipse 50 wins this season.  This total is still far short of what we should see from Boston.  But it might be good enough to get home court advantage in the first round in the Eastern Conference.

What about the Nuggets?  Denver gave Marcus Camby away in the off-season.  So it looked like Denver was taking a step-back in 2008-09.   And with Iverson coming off the books, it looked like Denver would think about re-building next summer.

Now the Nuggets have added Billups, which is an upgrade.  In fact, I think it’s now possible that Denver could reach 50 wins this year.  This means that the loss of Camby, coupled with this trade, might leave the Nuggets right where they were at the end of last season.  Unfortunately, where they ended didn’t make their fans happy.  Making the playoffs and losing in the first round probably gets Karl fired.   If there is a silver lining — I think that with Billups — Denver might at least win a couple of playoff games.

Denver’s position with respect to the salary cap, though, has worsened.  So it’s flexibility in 2009 is weakened and building a true title contender in Denver may be a bit harder.  In sum, I am not really sure what Denver is trying to accomplish.

I should note that Matthew Yglesias - in the midst of a very historic day (yes, there is something a bit more important than this trade going on) - took the time to comment on this trade.  And he briefly made the same points that I made (less briefly). Let me close with the comments from Yglesias.

When I first heard that the Pistons had traded for Allen Iverson, I thought Joe Dumars had lost his mind. Give up your best player (and a useful rotation guy) in exchange for a more famous, but worse, player who plays the same position and is of about the same age? Crazy. But of course Dumars isn’t crazy so it became clear that he wasn’t trading for Iverson at all, he’s trading for . . . Allen Iverson’s expiring contract. That shifts this out of “crazy” and into “gutsy.” Pistons fans have been disappointed with the team’s performance over the past couple of seasons, but the fact remains that they’ve been much better than most NBA teams. I might well have thought that leaving well enough alone was a reasonable policy. But instead he’s looking to rebuild. Gutsy. We’ll see.

Meanwhile, Denver’s decision-making makes no sense. The Camby trade was a clear move to cut costs and rebuild. But this is a “win now” move. A team of Billups, JR Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Marcus Camby with Antonio McDyess, Nene, and Anthony Carter coming off the bench would be a very good team. Probably still not better than the Lakers or the Jazz, but very good. What they’ve got now is just “eh.”

- DJ

http://dberri.wordpress.com

Which one was better?

As I have noted in the past, I was born in Detroit and grew up a Pistons fan. And since sports allegiance doesn’t (or at least shouldn’t) change as you age, I remain a Pistons fan.

My memory of the Pistons extends all the way back to the days of Bob Lanier (I can still remember when he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks). But I truly began to follow the Pistons when Isiah Thomas was drafted (in 1981 when I was eleven). The story I believed growing up was that Isiah put the Pistons on the map, and it was Isiah who led the Detroit to the team’s first two championships.

As I noted last summer, the story I grew up believing is not told by Wins Produced (see Looking Back at the Bad Boys). Wins Produced indicates that The Bad Boys were led by Dennis Rodman and Bill Laimbeer (not Isiah Thomas).

After Rodman and Laimbeer moved on, the Pistons became quite a bit worse. The Grant Hill era saw some success, but it wasn’t until another productive big man - Ben Wallace - came on the scene that the Pistons once again contended for the title.

Which backcourt dynamic duo was greater?

Discussing Chauncey and Isiah on Pistonscast

Unlike what we saw with Rodman and Laimbeer, though, when Big Ben left the Pistons didn’t fall apart. Since Wallace departed in 2006 the Pistons have had two +50 win seasons. And the leading producer of wins on each team has been Chauncey Billups.

Table One: The Detroit Pistons in 2006-07 and 2005-06

Table Two: The Detroit Pistons in 2007-08

All of this serves as a background to a recent conversation I had with John W. Davis and Deven Khrucell. John and Deven are the hosts of Pistonscast, “the number one podcast for die-hard Pistons fans.” As I remember, last spring I was a guest on the program and the subject of Allen Iverson came up. As I often note, “the Answer” is not quite as productive as many believe. And I noted at the time, I think Isiah was a more productive player than Iverson.

Such a statement may make Iverson fans unhappy, but is not exactly disputed by “die-hard Pistons fans.” But as I often do, I could not leave well enough alone. I also indicated last spring that Chauncey Billups - the current point guard in Detroit - is more productive than the one considered the greatest player in team history.

When I noted that Billups offers more today than Isiah did in the 1980s, Deven expressed some unhappiness. As a result, I was asked to return to the show to debate Deven on the relative merits of Chauncey and Isiah.

This debate is now posted at Pistonscast. The specific podcasts you need to hear - if you are interested in this discussion - are Episodes 62 and 63. Episode 62 is the first half of our discussion. We begin on the topic of Kwame Brown, but after awhile move into the discussion of Billups and Thomas. This debate is then continued in episode 63.

Essentially, Deven’s perspective is that the numbers are not enough to tell us that Chauncey is worth more than Isiah. Of course, I disagree. The numbers in basketball do explain wins. And those numbers go back to the individuals. Furthermore, it’s not clear to me how we could ever objectively test the propositions put forward by the non-numbers crowd. At least, I can’t see how we can test such propositions without numbers.

If Iverson was the Answer, Was Isiah the Question?

More on Billups, Isiah, and Iverson

For those who wish to see more numbers on this subject, here is a comparison of the career numbers of Billups, Thomas, and Iverson.

Table Three: Comparing Chauncey Billups, Isiah Thomas, and Allen Iverson

As Table Three indicates, the key stats are shooting efficiency and turnovers. Unlike Isiah and Iverson - who are both below average with respect to shots from the field and turnovers - Billups excels with respect to each of these stats. Consequently, Billups has a bigger impact on team wins.

If we turn to Wins Produced, we see the following career marks [in Wins Produced and Wins Produced per 48 minutes]:

Chauncey Billups: 90.9 Wins Produced, 0.181 WP48

Isiah Thomas: 97.4 Wins Produced, 0.132 WP48

Allen Iverson: 64.8 Wins Produced, 0.090 WP48

And if we look at each player’s career best marks [in WP48], again we see Billups coming out on top:

Chauncey Billups: 16.0 Wins Produced, 0.304 WP48 [2007-08]

Isiah Thomas: 18.6 Wins Produced, 0.289 WP48 [1984-85]

Allen Iverson: 10.0 Wins Produced, 0.152 WP48 [2004-05]

So those are the numbers. My sense is that Deven will not be convinced. And hopefully as you listen, you will hear that it’s okay if we don’t all agree. The conversation, by itself, is still quite fun (and hopefully interesting).

One More Interview

Last Thursday I was also a guest on the Jack Warkenthein’s Show - Where Wall Street Meets Main Street - on the Biz Radio Network. If you turn to the Podcasts for Jack’s show you can listen to my two segments on August 21 (part two and three). One should keep in mind, though, that this interview was done at 7:20am Central Time (the show is broadcast in Texas). This is 6:20am at my home in Utah. You are listening to me speak just minutes after I woke up that morning. So I don’t guarantee that I am entirely coherent (which probably makes the whole conversation even more interesting).

Still, I do think I offered some reasonable comments on Olympic basketball, the Rockets acquisition of Ron Artest, and the Mavericks acquisition of Jason Kidd. I think I also said something about why high oil prices could be good news. Again, the whole conversation was pretty early in the morning.

- DJ

www.dberri.wordpress.com

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

The Pistons Close the Gap

Does all this mean that the Pistons have closed the gap?  In the regular season the Pistons had an efficiency differential of 8.17.  In the post-season this differential has declined to 5.10.  Yes, the Celtics still boast a better differential even when we compare just the post-season performance of each team.

One should note, though, that the Pistons have faced better competition than Boston.  So one could argue that the Pistons have closed the gap.  Certainly as a Pistons fan I hope this is the case.

Had the Pistons maintained their regular season performance we would not have to discuss strength of competition.  If that were the case the Pistons would have thus far surpassed the Celtics.  Why were the Pistons unable to maintain what we saw in the regular season? One answer, as detailed in The Wages of Wins, is that playoff performance tends to be worse than the regular season (due to improved competition).  One Piston, though, has decline a bit more than we would expect.

Table Three: The Detroit Pistons after the First Two Rounds of the 2008 Playoffs

As Table Three reveals, virtually all of Detroit’s decline can be attributed to Rasheed Wallace.  In the regular season his WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] was 0.142. In the post-season his mark is only 0.031. 

Wallace is not the only one whose performance has changed.  Chauncey Billups is also offering less while Tayshaun Prince is now leading the team in Wins Produced.  If Wallace and Billups can return to form, and Prince keeps producing, the Pistons might just advance to the NBA Finals.  And if that happens, I think the Pistons might just win their fourth NBA title.  Or to put it another way, I think the winner of the Celtics-Pistons series should be favored over either the Lakers or Spurs.

Let me close by noting that fans of Boston and Detroit should look forward to a great series.  As I noted a few weeks ago, the current edition of each team is the best in each franchise’s history.  In sum, this should be real fun (and even more fun if the Pistons win).

David J. Berri
Associate Professor of Economics
California State University-Bakersfield

www.dberri.wordpress.com

      Here is my  Rodney Stuckey Analysis.

The first document is the Pistons after 80 games.  As you can see, the team is led by Chauncey Billups.  He is easily their most productive player.  Average WP48 is 0.100, and so you can see that Billups gets quite a bit of help.  Prince, McDyess, Wallace, Hamilton, Maxiell, and Johnson are all above average (Amir is second to Billups in WP48).

The rookies, Stuckey and Afflalo, are each below average.  But not by much.

Relative to other guards, each rookie looks pretty good.  I compared Stuckey to both point guards and shooting guards.  Among point guards, only Conley has a higher Win Score per 48 minute (this is not the same as WP48).  Win Score does not take into account team defense, and when that is considered (as it is in calculating WP48), Stuckey is the more productive player (in other words, Stuckey has the highest WP48 among point guards).  I would add that Stuckey is also more productive than Billups was his rookie season.

Turning to shooting guards… Durant and Afflalo have higher Win Scores.  But the difference is small. If you wanted to argue that Stuckey is the most productive guard, I think you would have a case.  For comparison sake I also consider Rip Hamilton’s rookie numbers.  Again, Stuckey is much better.

Looking at the individual stats, Stuckey is able to rebound and get steals.  He also gets some assists and is not too bad with respect to turnovers.  Where he has problems is in the area of shooting efficiency.  When he gets his shots to fall more consistently, Stuckey will be an above average guard.

Evaluating the First Round Shooting Guards

Below Average Numbers in Red

Points-per-shot = [PTS-FTM]/FGA

Adjusted Field Goal Percentage = PPS/2

Net Possessions = Rebounds + Steals - Turnovers

Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF

season almost complete

If memory serves, Stuckey is who the Pistons got for Milicic.  So in the end, the Pistons did come out ahead on that transaction.  At least, Stuckey is likely to be a better pro than Milicic.  

Of course, had the Pistons taken Dwyane Wade (or Chris Bosh, Chris Kaman, etc…) they would also be better off.  

Best,

David J. Berri
Associate Professor of Economics
California State University-Bakersfield
www.csub.edu/~dberri
www.wagesofwins.com

www.dberri.wordpress.com